It’s one of the biggest remaining questions about the effort to vaccinate our way out of the coronavirus pandemic -- how long will immunity last post-vaccination?
To date, there is limited data available to understand how long antibodies will last in individuals who have been vaccinated, or individuals who have been naturally infected. Research has shown that people who get vaccinated have more antibodies than those who were naturally infected.
The developers of the first two COVID-19 vaccines available in the U.S. -- Pfizer and Moderna -- have each determined that their two-dose shots are more than 90% effective against COVID-19 at least six months after the second dose.
They can only speculate beyond that timeframe, as they need to continue to follow the first recipients of the vaccines to find out when their immunity begins to wane.
“We need to be careful about that six month number,” said Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert, in an interview earlier this week with MSNBC. “The study only went out as far as six months so we know for sure it’s effective for six months but it’s highly likely that it will be effective for a considerably longer period of time.”
“If it turns out (to last) a year or a year and a half, we very well may need to get booster shots to keep up the level of protection.”
While time will tell if additional doses are needed and how regularly, such boosters might not be needed as often as the annual flu shot, said Joseph Eisenberg, a University of Michigan expert in global diseases.
Eisenberg noted that coronavirus don’t mutate as fast as influenza, so vaccines should give longer-term protection. But because these vaccines were developed expediently during the pandemic, it’s possible that they’re not the optimal vaccines and better ones could follow.
“So even if we need a booster in six months to a year this time around, it doesn’t mean we can’t get a better vaccine that could last two, three, four years.” he said. “That’s the hope. That it’ll last more than a year and it won’t be a lifelong vaccine by any means. But it’s hard to say with this initial vaccine.”
Related: 43% of Michigan adults have received first vaccine dose; see numbers in your county
Testing is already underway to determine if a third-shot immune booster to the Moderna vaccine could expand immunity and help against news variants. One such study is being funder by the National Institute of Health, according to a report by The Associated Press.
Separately, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has given Pfizer permission to start similar testing. CEO Albert Bourla said people will likely need a booster within 12 months, and they’re working on a third dose which they hope could increase antibody response “10 to 20 fold what it is now.”
“A likely scenario ... is we will have an annual revaccination with one dose of the vaccine,” Bourla said during an interview with NBC News.
In its latest report, Pfizer said its vaccine is effective at least six months after it’s administered. Among the more than 44,000 clinical trial members, 927 were diagnosed with COVID-19. Of that group, 77 were among the participants who received the vaccine and 850 were given a placebo shot.
There were 32 cases of severe COVID-19 illness notes in the report, all of which were in the placebo group.
Moderna also reported that its vaccine was also more than 90% effective against COVID-19 up to six months after the second dose, according to a review of its clinical trial data.
To date, Michigan has administered more than 5.6 million doses of the three available vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson). There have been more than 3.5 million first doses given out, and more than 2.1 million second dose shots, meaning 43.3% of residents 16 and older are partially vaccinated, and about 28.8% are fully vaccinated.
Among the most vulnerable population -- residents 65 years and older -- more than 70% have gotten a first dose, and more than 61% are fully vaccinated.
Asked whether individuals might be able to get a COVID-19 booster and flu shot at the same time down the road, Eisenberg said it’s possible but not yet clear. There are nuances about which vaccines can and cannot be paired together.
“Certain vaccines do get paired, like the MMR vaccine against measles, mumps and rubella, but the polio (vaccine) was always separate for example. So yeah, it’d be convenient if one needed to get it yearly -- it’s hard enough to get people to get the flu vaccine every year -- but it remains to be seen how long protection will last.”
Read more on MLive:
J&J vaccine to remain in limbo while officials seek evidence of health risk
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Whitmer urges antibody therapy as COVID-19 surge continues in Michigan
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