October was the strongest month for Michigan retailers since June, according to the Michigan Retailers Association monthly index.
Small businesses are optimistic for the holiday season, too, with 75% of those surveyed projecting an increase in sales for the next three months. About 71% reported an increase in sales in October, compared to just 40% reporting an increase in September. The MRA’s seasonally adjusted performance index is conducted with help from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Detroit branch.
“The optimism among retailers is a tell-tale sign that retail sales have some holiday season momentum,” said William J. Hallan, President and CEO of the MRA, in a news release.
The optimism comes in the face of many challenges for the industry – a shortage of employees, a supply chain in disrepair and another wave of surging COVID-19 cases in Michigan.
The labor shortage is starting to ease and many retailers bought product early in anticipation of shipping delays, MRA spokesperson Jennifer Rook said. In turn, Michiganders started their holiday shopping early – hence the strong October, Rook said.
The National Retail Federation predicts a record year of holiday spending. It expects each consumer will spend an average of $998 on holiday items, totaling about $850 billion in the U.S.
Holiday sales in 2020 totaled $777.3 billion, per the NRF.
That spending will be spread between traditional in-person shopping and online sales, Rook said. The pandemic prompted many small retailers to develop online shopping and they’ve continued offering that option into 2021. But retailers also expect more people to shop in person than last year, she said.
Plus, the return of holiday gatherings in 2021 likely equates to more holiday spending, Rook said.
“There’s a lot of indications that people are going to be celebrating the season,” Rook said. “People want to get back together again.”
At this time last year, retailers had a number of COVID-19 hurdles, including limiting capacity to 25% and requiring masks. Case numbers are even higher this fall, but with an overall vaccination rate at about 60%, there are no COVID-19 business requirements in Michigan – just an advisory recommending people wear a mask indoors in public.
RELATED: Michigan issues mask advisory as COVID-19 cases rise to worrying levels
“Out of consideration for your neighbor, it might be a nice thing to mask up (at stores), in the spirit of the holidays,” Rook said.
Businesses can require masks if they choose. But Rook hasn’t heard of many retailers requiring them, lately.
Michigan has the highest COVID-19 rate in the nation in the past two weeks, per the New York Times, with 82 cases per 100,000 people. Michigan averaged 7,654 new cases per day on Nov. 19 – the highest rate of the pandemic.
As of Nov. 15, Michigan had 11 ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks tied to retail businesses. Since then, due to limited health department capacity amid the latest virus surge, Michigan is no longer tracking outbreaks in settings like retailers and restaurants, per a state spokesperson.
Despite record numbers, shoppers aren’t deterred, Rook said.
“From what we’re hearing, people want to get out and shop. They want to go out in person. They see holiday shopping as one of their traditions,” Rook said. “Last year, people heeded the warning. But this year, with (vaccine) boosters and masks – even though the numbers are up, if they’re vaccinated, they feel they’re safe and they’re going to get out there.”
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‘People want to get out and shop’: Michigan retailers optimistic in spite of COVID-19 surge - mlive.com
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