The movie industry has a problem that could outlast the coronavirus pandemic. Women over 35 haven’t come back to theaters.

“It’s one of the biggest remaining groups that are lacking at the box office,” says Phil Contrino, director of media and research at National Association of Theatre Owners.

As life returns more to normal, young audiences...

The movie industry has a problem that could outlast the coronavirus pandemic. Women over 35 haven’t come back to theaters.

“It’s one of the biggest remaining groups that are lacking at the box office,” says Phil Contrino, director of media and research at National Association of Theatre Owners.

As life returns more to normal, young audiences led by men are the ones refilling multiplexes. They’ve turned out for action movies like “Venom: Let There Be Carnage,” which topped all theatrical releases in ticket sales in October, and helped make it the biggest month at the U.S. box office since the pandemic began.

But older audiences, and especially women, have been slower to return, according to studios, theaters and surveys. Among 13- to 64-year-olds, some 15% of U.S. movie ticket sales came from women 35 and up in the past year, down from 22% during the same period in 2019, based on surveys of about 4,000 people conducted by the entertainment research firm Guts + Data.

Their relative absence could undermine a box-office rebound this holiday season as Hollywood, finally, offers its usual seasonal mix of big popcorn flicks and awards contenders, including “West Side Story,” “House of Gucci” and “The Tragedy of Macbeth.”

Ariana DeBose as Anita in ‘West Side Story,’ director Steven Spielberg’s update of the musical.

Photo: Twentieth Century Fox

Before the pandemic, the industry worried that it was losing young viewers to smaller screens. Now, it’s older viewers who seem to hang in the balance, in part due to moviegoing prices that can seem steep next to the cost of home entertainment. Given the option to see an anticipated movie in theaters, stream it at home for a premium fee, or wait more than a month until they could stream it for free, 66% of women over 35 opted for the latter in a September survey by the research and analytics firm Engine Insights.

It’s been two years since Janet Dietrich, a 49-year-old mother of three in Northville, Mich., has stepped into a movie theater. For her vaccinated family, Covid-19 concerns are no longer a deterrent, she says, but cumulative ticket and concession prices are. Meanwhile, pandemic routines bred loyalty to their home screens, stocked with multiple subscription services and some new releases hitting theaters at the same time.

She almost got on board with her husband’s urge to experience the latest James Bond release on a big screen. On several occasions the couple made a loose plan to see “No Time To Die,” but they bailed on 007—and their local multiplex—each time.

Usually, it was Ms. Dietrich who swayed the couple’s decision, she says, summing up her position as, “Eh. Do we really want to go? Eh. It’s nicer to just stay here.”

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Some people in the industry worry that perceptions about flagging female demand discourage studios from making movies for them. “You’ve got to give them a selection. That’s part of the problem. We’re seeing everyone very scared to put out movies that appeal to women,” one studio executive says.

“Spencer,” starring Kristen Stewart as Princess Diana on a psychologically punishing holiday with her husband and royal in-laws, brought in only $2.1 million last weekend when it opened to strong reviews on about 1,000 screens. Women made up 60% of the audience, according to polling by Comscore and Screen Engine/ASI.

Women made up slightly more than half the initial turnout for “Last Night In Soho,” a high-concept thriller from Edgar Wright, which has grossed $7.8 million since its Halloween release on 3,000 U.S. screens. The audience for Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch” skewed slightly older and more male. With a smaller footprint in theaters, the film has earned about $8.7 million.

Anya Taylor-Joy as Sandie in director Edgar Wright’s ‘Last Night in Soho.’

Photo: FOCUS FEATURES

Unlike in 2020, when theatrical releases were more sporadic, this November and December brings more options, from “Sing 2” to prestige dramas angling for awards. This lineup will test whether holiday moviegoing rituals, too, will return, especially for women and older audiences.

Bellwether releases with that potential drawing power include “Belfast,” director Kenneth Branagh’s semiautobiographical film about a family roiled by the Troubles in 1969 Northern Ireland (in theaters Nov. 12); “King Richard,” the story of the rise of Venus and Serena Williams overseen by their father, played by Will Smith (Nov. 19); “House of Gucci,” starring Italian-accented Lady Gaga and Adam Driver in a period drama about the luxury fashion house (Nov. 24); and “West Side Story,” director Steven Spielberg’s update of the seminal musical (Dec. 10).

From left, Caitriona Balfe, Jamie Dornan, Judi Dench, Jude Hill and Lewis McAskie in director Kenneth Branagh's ‘Belfast.’

Photo: Focus Features

Even as Covid-19 concerns fade, some audiences might not regain the sense of urgency to see new releases in theaters. Executives say that trend began even before the pandemic for so-called specialty or art-house releases, but the problem is even more pronounced now for those films, which studios assign smaller budgets and big aspirations for awards.

About 26% of female entertainment consumers ages 35 to 64 expressed interest in viewing the average specialty film coming out in November and December—more than men of the same age, or younger men and women surveyed by Guts + Data.

But only 7% of those women—less than the other demographics—said they were likely to go to the theater to see these films, including “House of Gucci” and “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” starring Frances McDormand and Denzel Washington (Dec. 25).

Studios and movie exhibitors are hoping for a cumulative effect on grown-up audiences in the coming weeks. “Every new movie that opens brings somebody back who hasn’t been to the theaters. The more that happens, the more the momentum builds,” says Mr. Contrino of the theater owners’ group.

Regardless of turnout, however, the question of whether older moviegoers will return won’t be settled over the holidays, he adds: “We’re going to be living with this for a while, well into next year.”

Write to John Jurgensen at john.jurgensen@wsj.com