Wittenmyer: Why next Cubs roster move should be Rizzo extension originally appeared on NBC Sports Chicago
MESA, Ariz. — Since spring training began, Cubs manager David Ross has fielded repeated questions on his daily media Zoom sessions about the poise and ability of Nico Hoerner, the return and reinvention of Jake Arrieta, the mechanics and mindset of Craig Kimbrel.
He’s been asked repeatedly about the bounce-back factors involving Javy Baez and Kris Bryant, the statuses of Joc Pederson and Ian Happ, about Willson Contreras’ framing, Kyle Hendricks’ ascent, Jason Heyward’s voice, David Bote’s grit, Rowan Wick’s health, Jake Marisnick’s defense, Cam Maybin’s veteran presence, Andrew Chafin’s left arm, Shelby Miller’s right arm and even the manager’s own thoughts on such movie “classics” as Tommy Boy and Dumb and Dumber.
The one subject nobody has asked about: Anthony Rizzo.
Well, that’s not entirely true. The day after a fan yelled at Rizzo to offer a pizza if he delivered an RBI with a runner at third, Ross was asked if Rizzo ever got his pizza.
“He got out of there pretty quick. I think he probably got In-N-Out [Burger],” Ross said.
Veteran move.
All of which tells you almost everything you need to know about Rizzo, his place with the Cubs and how most people view both.
Mostly, it tells you he’s taken for granted, if not a little overlooked at times on a team that always seems to have a brighter light — not to mention bigger concerns — at any given moment.
And whether that says more about Rizzo or those around him, it probably also speaks to why he might be as important as Javy Baez on the contract-extension pecking order for team president Jed Hoyer.
“He’s very consistent, one of those things where he may not be the flashiest but he’s very consistently reliable,” said first-year teammate Zach Davies, the right-hander who faced Rizzo for five years as a member of the Brewers pitching staff.
That doesn’t begin to tell the story of Rizzo’s value to the Cubs since he became an All-Star in his second full season in the majors.
Neither does this: He leads the team in WAR (baseball-reference.com) over the past seven seasons with a 30.2 mark that ranks among the top 10 in major-league position players.
But this starts to: He hasn’t been the Cubs’ outright leader in that category in any of those seasons (tying Jake Arrieta for the team lead once in 2014).
That’s why it’s so easy to overlook, if not begin to undervalue, what Rizzo has meant to the Cubs on the field — never mind his growing presence in the clubhouse as one of the two or three most respected veterans left in the room.
“I don’t really look at it like that,” Rizzo said during a conversation this spring with NBC Sports Chicago. “When you see your friends have success it’s fun. I always say I love when my friends hit good golf shots when I’m on golf courses. You want everyone to do that.”
Make no mistake: This lineup has been built around the left-handed slugger with the disciplined approach since he established himself as an everyday player.
He has batted mostly third and cleanup for the Cubs, but also started 89 games in the No. 2 spot to boost the top of the lineup at times and even has taken an annual stretch in the leadoff spot to cover a trouble spot for the Cubs in recent years — putting up a .420 on-base percentage and 1.005 OPS in 257 plate appearances at leadoff, tops for any spot he has batted.
But when the Cubs won the World Series in 2016, it was Bryant winning the MVP (Rizzo was fourth). When the Cubs tied the Brewers for most wins in the National League two years later, it was Baez as the MVP runner-up (Rizzo also received votes). Arrieta got most of the attention in 2015 with his Cy Young and no-hitter (Rizzo settled for an All-Star selection and top-four MVP finish).
“I just let my game do its talking,” Rizzo said. “Obviously, there’s times when you want to be shown love more, or [times] you don’t deserve it more. But it’s just going out there and playing and putting together [good seasons]. I’ve always said after ’14 when I made my first All-Star game I want to do it again in ’15, and I then I want to do it again.”
If there’s a time he wants to be shown more love, it’s now. He and the Cubs are talking about an extension. And while he’s the oldest among the core guys coming up on free agency, he might also be as important as any of them for what he has shown already — and for what the front office wants the team to look like when the next, new competitive core is in place.
And he wants to finish talks before the season starts April 1.
First baseman Paul Goldschmidt signed a five-year, $130 million extension with the Cardinals two years ago at the same age Rizzo is now. Former Reds MVP Joey Votto, 37, is playing on a 10-year, $225 million extension he signed at 30. White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu — last year’s American League MVP — is 34 as he enters the middle season of a three-year, $50 million extension.
It seems like there’s some middle ground in there to work with for comps, and Rizzo said as recently as last year when he approached the club about an extension: “It made a lot of sense to try to get it done and not try to break their bank and also be fair.”
The club wasn’t interested in talking then. It is now.
And it should be interested in making sure something gets done. With some of that urgency the front office seems to be so fond of.
Four years at $90 million or $100 million? Five at $120 million? Four plus an option?
Rizzo said a week or so ago that he was “very optimistic” that something might get done with the club. He also said he’s at peace knowing he’ll have clarity soon either way — with his long-term future in Chicago in place or a chance to start a new chapter elsewhere.
The Cubs should consider that a call to action.
Because for all the WAR numbers and the four Gold Gloves, three All-Star selections and the .901 OPS and 30 homers a year during the last six full seasons, fangraphs.com also says nobody in the NL has helped his team win more incrementally, play for play.
Since the start of the 2014 season, Rizzo’s Win Probability Added — the sum of how each action on the field, whether a homer, strikeout or grounder into the shift, moves the team’s win-expectancy percentage for the game — is 28.14.
Goldschmidt, Freddie Freeman, Bryce Harper and Christian Yelich all trail Rizzo.
Only Mike Trout (34.24) is better in the majors in that span.
“Anyone in this league can have one good year, two good years,” Rizzo said, coming as close as he got to bragging during the conversation. “It’s accumulating the years, throwing up the Jon Lester stats every year: 30-plus starts for however many years [in a row].
“That’s the body of work to where, when I’m done with my career, I can look back and say I’ve left no stone unturned. I did everything I can and got the max potential I had out of what I was gifted with.”
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Wittenmyer: Why Cubs Need to Make Anthony Rizzo Extension a Priority - NBC Chicago
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