Mike Tice didn’t need to ponder long Saturday when asked what his former team must do moving forward.
“Well, first off, they need better players,’’ said Tice, the Vikings’ head coach from 2002-05 and now an NFL analyst.
Minnesota was walloped 52-33 at New Orleans on Friday to be eliminated from the playoff race. With one game left at Detroit next Sunday, at 6-9 the Vikings are assured of finishing with a losing record for the first time since they went 7-9 in Mike Zimmer’s first season as coach in 2014.
Sure, the Vikings need better players, especially on a defense that Zimmer called Friday the “worst one I’ve ever had.’’ But they are in a difficult spot due to the NFL salary cap.
Due to lost revenue during the coronavirus pandemic, when teams either had no fans or significantly reduced capacities, the cap will go down from being $198.2 million in 2020.
The NFL has said the minimum number for 2021 will be $175 million, and some believe it will come in at that. However, Pro Football Talk reported earlier this month the cap could be as high as $195 million. That would result in losses from 2020 being absorbed more gradually in future years.
“For most teams, a $20 million difference would mean a lot, especially a team like the Vikings,’’ said cap analyst Jason Fitzgerald, who runs OvertheCap.com. “That’s the difference in not having to make moves in February and early March just to be cap compliant.”
Until he hears otherwise, Fitzgerald has been using a projected cap figure of $176 million for 2021. After the Vikings sign practice-squad players to futures deals after the season, he said they will be about $11 million over his projected cap.
Even if the cap number is higher than projected, the Vikings for the second straight year likely will need to shed some big salaries. Entering this season, they released cornerback Xavier Rhodes and nose tackle Linval Joseph, didn’t re-sign defensive end Everson Griffen and cornerback Trae Waynes as free agents, and told left tackle Riley Reiff he would have to take a $5 million pay cut or be released.
Reiff, whose base salary was cut from $10.9 million to $5.9 million, should end up recouping $2 million of his lost dollars by having added snap clauses to his contract. Reiff, who has played all 1,002 snaps this season, secured a $1 million bonus on Friday for playing 86 percent this season, and is on the verge of making it $2 million total for playing 93.75 percent. To not get his full bonus, Reiff would have to not play at Detroit, and the Vikings run 67 or more plays.
During his renegotiation, Reiff also had it put in his contract for the final year of 2021 that he gets a $5 million bonus if he’s on the roster shortly after the start of the new league on March 17. If Reiff stays, he also would be in line for a $6.65 million base salary and a $100,000 workout bonus in 2021 for a total of $11.75 million. That seemingly would be too rich for the Vikings.
Reiff could be given another opportunity to restructure his deal to return. And that also might look to be what tight end Kyle Rudolph, whose production has slipped in recent years, has to do to stick around.
Rudolph, 31, is on the books in 2021 for a base salary of $7.625 million and cap number of $9.45 million. And the Vikings have two solid young tight ends with much lower salaries in Irv Smith Jr. and Tyler Conklin.
“That’s certainly a possibility,’’ former Minnesota star tight end Steve Jordan said of the chance Rudolph could be a cap casualty after 10 seasons. “It’s unfortunate, but that’s the system we’re in.’’
On defense, safety Anthony Harris, who becomes a free agent in March after playing under a one-year franchise tag of $11.441 million, might not be back. The Vikings declined to offer Harris a long-term deal before this season, and it seems unlikely he will get one in 2021 after having just a so-so year.
Linebacker Anthony Barr, on the books in 2021 for a base salary of $12.3 million and for a cap number of $15.062 million, also could be released or asked to take a pay cut to remain with the team. Barr, who had his four-year streak of making the Pro Bowl snapped in 2019, was lost for this season in Week 2 due to a shoulder injury.
“I think you just cut Barr,’’ Fitzgerald said of the linebacker who has three years left on a five-year, $67.6 million deal he signed in March 2019. “I think at this point that’s a losing investment.’’
The Vikings likely will have to choose between keeping Barr or linebacker Eric Wilson, who played well after taking over for him. Wilson becomes a free agent after making $3.259 million in 2020.
Fitzgerald said Wilson could command a salary of around $9 million or $10 million a year in free agency. The Vikings, already paying Eric Kendricks big money, aren’t going to have three high-priced linebackers, and Wilson, wanting to be an every-down player, unlikely would want to return regardless if Barr were to remain under contract.
Other players under contract in 2021 who might not be back include nose tackle Shamar Stephen ($5.083 million cap number), kicker Dan Bailey ($3.8 million) and punter Britton Colquitt ($3.216 million).
One high-priced player who looks as if he will stick around is quarterback Kirk Cousins, who signed a two-year, $66 million extension last March after having originally signed a three-year, $84 million deal in 2018. Cousins’ contract is guaranteed for 2021 with a base salary of $21 million and a cap number of $31 million, and his 2022 salary is due to become guaranteed on March 19 for a base salary of $35 million and a cap number of $45 million.
Despite Minnesota having missed the playoffs in two of Cousins’ three seasons, he has thrown this year for a career-high 32 touchdown passes. It’s highly unlikely they would release him before March 19, and if the Vikings looked to trade him, it’s not as if they have anyone waiting in the wings at quarterback.
“The offense did some great things this year,’’ Tice said of Minnesota being sixth in the NFL in total offense. “Kirk Cousins does a nice job with the things he’s asked to do. It’s hard to evaluate what he can do dropping back and sitting in the pocket because when he drops back and sits in the pocket, he’s at times under some type of heavy pressure. … It’s readily evident, but they need to upgrade the offensive line.’’
That won’t be immediately easy to do if Reiff is a cap casualty. The Vikings could move solid right tackle Brian O’Neill to the left side for his fourth season. O’Neill is a candidate before next season to sign a lucrative extension, so some money might need to be earmarked to go there.
And the Vikings do have high hopes for rookie right guard Ezra Cleveland, who could be a candidate to move to one of the tackle spots if Reiff is gone.
For now, the biggest problem is on defense. Minnesota is ranked 27th in the NFL in both scoring and total defense, and Zimmer called the loss to the Saints an “embarrassment.” The Vikings gave up their most points in a game since 1963, and the 583 yards allowed were the most in Zimmer’s seven seasons.
After Friday’s game, Zimmer pointed to defensive end Danielle Hunter, a two-time Pro Bowl selection, missing the entire season with a neck injury, nose tackle Michael Pierce opting out due to the pandemic, and Kendricks, a first-team All-Pro selection in 2019, having missed the past four games due to a calf strain. The absence of Hunter resulted in the Vikings having an anemic pass rush that only has generated 22 sacks.
“We’ve got to get Hunter back, we’ve got to get Pierce here, we’ve got to get Barr, Kendricks, Pro Bowl players, good players that we have, they need to be back,’’ Zimmer said.
Having those players back obviously would help, but there won’t be much money to add many other veteran players. And the biggest problem in 2020 was Minnesota not having much depth on defense and having to rely on numerous young players.
The Vikings at least did get solid contributions on defense from rookies Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler at cornerback, D.J. Wonnum at defensive end and Troy Dye at linebacker. They will look to beef up the defense even more in the draft in April, with their top picks currently being one in the first round, two in the third round and two in the fourth.
Overall, the Vikings had a banner draft in 2020. Most notably, they got wide receiver Justin Jefferson with the No. 22 pick, and he made the Pro Bowl. Jefferson already has broken Randy Moss’ 1998 rookie team record of 69 catches with 79. Next Sunday, with 1,267 yards receiving, he will be in position to topple Moss’ rookie yardage mark of 1,313.
Minnesota’s only other Pro Bowl selection was running back Dalvin Cook, who is second in the NFL in rushing with 1,557 yards. The cap-challenged Vikings at least were able to sign Cook to a five-year, $63 million extension before the season, which turned out to be a good move.
After the season ends at Detroit, the Vikings will begin to ponder all their moves in an attempt next season to bounce back. And Tice stressed it will be a thorough process.
“They’re going to have to decide where they’re going to place their money and their efforts into upgrading what parts of the team first and then what parts of the team down the road,’’ he said. “You don’t do personnel decisions three or four days after the season. You take a deep breath, take a step back and do the homework. Homework takes time.’’
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After missing playoffs and posting losing record, Vikings again will need to shed some big salaries - TwinCities.com-Pioneer Press
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