Jul. 20--For the first time, the Bay Area's largest planning agencies have mapped what the region might look like in 2050 -- and it's a place where new jobs and housing increasingly migrate to the South Bay.
The draft document known as Plan Bay Area 2050 anticipates less growth in San Francisco and Oakland than had been forecast in the past -- though both would continue to develop -- and more in San Jose and nearby parts of Santa Clara County. It also warns that even with governmental and investment strategies to try and preserve a diverse population, lower-income residents will still be under pressure from housing and transportation costs.
The blend of forecasts and policy goals were released this month by the Metropolitan Transportation Commission and the Association of Bay Area Governments. And while the findings were revisited this spring as the coronavirus upended daily life, officials involved in the effort say the pandemic's long-term impact is likely to be relatively minor.
"We do believe the region will rebound from this and get stronger," said Matt Maloney, the planning director for the two regional agencies. "Any long-term plan anticipates there will be recessions and unexpected change. This one happened to come right at the start."
As for the shift in the intensity of development away from the region's traditional hubs toward Silicon Valley, several factors are at work.
One is the plan looks all the way to 2050. The last plan the two agencies did went through 2040.
Also, this version takes a more activist approach. Besides asking cities and counties where they would like to see more growth occur, the prior approach, planners mapped out areas they see as well-suited to the development of transit-friendly, job-friendly housing.
"San Francisco's raw growth hasn't changed much in this round of projections," Maloney said. But planners sought South Bay locations where housing might make sense, such as old strip malls and shopping centers.
That's fine with the mayor of San Jose, which has 1 million residents and already is the region's largest city.
"Planners are acknowledging facts that are already on the ground, where the housing market wants to go," Mayor Sam Liccardo said.
He doesn't expect all of his fellow elected officials to be so accepting, however: "Leaders of large cities accept the realities of growth. Most smaller cities and towns will scream."
Plan Bay Area 2050 -- which still must go through public review and receive final approval -- is the latest in a series of regional plans dating to 1970. But this one could have more impact than most: Funds related to needs such as bay restoration and transportation upgrades increasingly are allocated on a regional basis. The state requires the report every five years to show regulators how the region will try to reduce the Bay Area's share of greenhouse gas emissions in coming years.
Overall, the plan anticipates that the region's population will grow from roughly 7.9 million in 2020 to 10.3 million by 2050. The number of jobs within the nine counties would climb from 4.1 million to 5.4 million.
It also emphasizes 25 "bold strategies" for making the region "affordable, connected, diverse, healthy and vibrant for all." Many are aspirational, with price tags but no current source of funds -- such as an annual $1.5 billion pool to help the region build and preserve affordable housing. Another goal, to provide child care subsidies to low-income workers across the region, would cost an estimated $30 billion over time.
The catch, of course, is that regional agencies don't have final say over the Bay Area's nine counties and 102 cities: Projects that planners see as logical are often resisted by growth-averse residents of smaller cities or older neighborhoods. Voters must approve taxes and bonds that would help to achieve the plan's goals.
"Some of us shake our heads -- aspirations might be great, but how can we accomplish them?" asked Julie Pierce. She's on the board of the Association of Bay Area Governments as well as the City Council in Clayton, a Contra Costa County city with a population of roughly 12,000.
Still, Pierce has found that such comprehensive efforts can have an impact.
"Visioning can lead people to see something new, so it isn't as scary," she suggested.
Long-range plans also send a signal, according to the association's current president.
"We need to prioritize equity in setting the region's direction," said Berkeley Mayor Jesse Arreguin. "It's going to be a challenge, but it's critical to add housing to areas that already have seen an explosion in jobs."
Even if all 25 strategies are implemented, the Bay Area of 2050 won't blossom into an egalitarian paradise.
The region's lower-income residents would see the amount of their household income consumed by housing and transportation fall roughly 20% from 2015 levels in the best-case scenario. But the cost burden would still be severe, consuming an estimated 83% of their monthly income.
For Bay Area residents overall, 48% of household income would go to transportation and housing in 2050, the plan suggests. That would be a drop from 57% in 2015.
As for transportation, more jobs would be located close to mass transit. But increased roadway congestion means that a typical rush-hour drive from Oakland to San Francisco would climb from 30 to 41 minutes.
And despite the proposed investments in affordable housing -- whether in building new units or making sure that existing subsidized ones receive permanent protection -- gentrification and displacement would threaten lower-income residents of neighborhoods that have convenient access to transit or jobs.
Though such observations might strike a discordant note with the aggressive goals, they exist for a reason.
"The warts of the plan are a motivation for action," Maloney suggested. "It gives people a better idea of the challenges we all face."
John King is The San Francisco Chronicle's urban design critic. Email: jking@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @johnkingsfchron
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